Economics engine
Robotaxi profitability models for every US market.
60-month financial projections built on real market data: fares, insurance, energy, labor costs, fleet ramp, overhead scaling, and unit economics. Download JP Morgan-grade Excel models for any city.
Selected market
Los Angeles, California
Platform
Tesla
Fleet / Acquisition
22 vehicles · lease
Break-even
Outside horizon
Exit value
$23,724,896
Market selector
Platform
Vehicle acquisition
Scenario
Capital profile
Deployment goal
Operating model
Autonomy target
Modeled fleet size
22
Fleet discount
0%
Debt share
0%
Interest rate
8%
Debt term
48 mo
Annual fare growth
3%
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Economics output
Unified BASE model for Los Angeles, built from the same market assumptions used in /plan.
Peak Fleet
22
Peak deployed fleet in the modeled market.
Break-even
Outside horizon
First month cumulative operating cash flow turns non-negative.
Year 1 EBITDA
$-778K
Year 1 margin -40.8%.
Year 5 Revenue
$3.0M
Net revenue after platform fees in the final modeled year.
Year 5 EBITDA
$-417K
Year 5 margin -14.1%.
Selected Exit
$23.7M
Highest implied enterprise value across the modeled exit multiple set.
Monthly revenue & EBITDA
60-month projection (quarterly markers)
Annual performance
Revenue and EBITDA by year
Cumulative cash flow
Cash position over 60-month horizon
Cost waterfall (Year 5 avg month)
Revenue to EBITDA bridge
Fleet By Market
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Unit Economics
| Market | Rev / veh / mo | Contribution / veh / mo | Margin | Trips/day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | $11K | -$676 | -6.0% | 18.5 |
Scenario Comparison
| Scenario | Annual EBITDA | Break-even | 5Y NPV | Cash trough |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $-778K | Outside horizon | $-3.2M | $3.8M |
| Bull case | $-269K | Outside horizon | $-665K | $1.2M |
| Bear case | $-1.2M | Outside horizon | $-5.9M | $7.7M |
Sensitivity Drivers
Fare / pricing
Downside $-916K / Upside $916K
Utilization
Downside $-1.3M / Upside $1.3M
Insurance
Downside $-517K / Upside $517K
Fleet size
Downside $51K / Upside $-230K
Platform fee
Downside $-289K / Upside $193K
Insurance cost vs. fare impact on EBITDA
| Insurance cost | -10% | Base | +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| -15% | $-552K | $-272K | $8K |
| Base | $-697K | $-417K | $-138K |
| +15% | $-843K | $-563K | $-283K |
Utilization vs. fleet size impact on revenue
| Utilization | 0.8x | 1.0x | 1.2x |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8x | $1.9M | $2.4M | $2.8M |
| 1.0x | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.5M |
| 1.2x | $2.9M | $3.6M | $4.2M |
Platform fee vs. fare impact on contribution margin
| Platform fee | -10% | Base | +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | -$9.50 | -$7.60 | -$5.70 |
| 15% | -$9.85 | -$7.99 | -$6.13 |
| 20% | -$11 | -$8.97 | -$7.21 |
Market Comparison
Las Vegas, Nevada
$651,279
Break-even month 32 · Year 5 EBITDA $600,352
Miami, Florida
$120,975
Break-even month 44 · Year 5 EBITDA $439,279
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
-$124,385
Break-even month 54 · Year 5 EBITDA $386,782
Reno, Nevada
-$191,470
Break-even month 56 · Year 5 EBITDA $342,764
Washington, District of Columbia
-$245,067
Break-even month 57 · Year 5 EBITDA $422,040
West Palm Beach, Florida
-$318,235
Break-even outside horizon · Year 5 EBITDA $310,978