After Uber's currently active and announced AV partner markets, which unannounced city is most likely to get AV partner access next?
Known company moves live on the 50-state research layer. This analysis only scores markets still outside the active, queued, testing, mapping, and public-groundwork footprint.
Reno leads Radar's unannounced-market stack for Uber because it remains outside the company's confirmed footprint while still clearing the strongest combined regulatory, competitive, and sequencing case.
The candidate set for Uber was regenerated after excluding every active, queued, testing, mapping, and publicly telegraphed market in the current research layer. Reno still rises to the top once only genuinely open, unannounced options remain.
Reno ranks #1 because commercial pathway is already open. and driverless pathway is already legible..
Houston ranks #2 because planner prior already ranks this market near the top. and commercial pathway is already open..
San Diego ranks #3 because commercial pathway is already open. and driverless pathway is already legible..
Waymo, Zoox, Volkswagen, NVIDIA/Lucid/Nuro, or another partner links Uber to a candidate market
Local policy clears in a candidate market where a partner is already testing
Uber expands operational support or venue tooling in a candidate market
Partners choose direct-only or non-Uber channels in likely candidate markets
A candidate market delays AV ride-hail authorization
Uber announces a different non-candidate AV market first
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
Reno moving from testing to named commercial permitting would raise confidence.
A disclosed partnership, fleet, or rider launch signal in Reno would raise confidence.
Any new safety setback or local political pushback would lower confidence.
Resolves when Uber or an AV partner announces Uber app access in an unannounced AV market beyond the currently tracked active and announced partner cities.
Uber newsroom or investor release names a new AV partner city
An AV partner announces Uber as the rider channel in a candidate market
Uber app access opens for autonomous rides in a candidate market
Horizon passes with no qualifying new Uber AV partner market
NRS 482A covers SAE Levels 3-5. Fully autonomous vehicles allowed without human operator. $5M insurance/bond required. DMV issues Certificates of Compliance. Legislature meets biennially — next session 2027. Interim com…
Las Vegas is positioned for paid AV ride-hail launch by Uber and Zoox in summer 2026, with Waymo still viewed as a plausible next-wave entrant. The city's grid layout, tourism economy, and controlled resort-corridor geo…
NRS 482A (2011/2017); AB 69 (2017). NRS 482A covers SAE Levels 3-5. Fully autonomous vehicles allowed without human operator. $5M insurance/bond required. DMV issues Certificates of Compliance. Legislature meets biennia…
Introduced Feb. 5, 2026; forwarded by House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee to the full committee on Feb. 10 by a 12-11 vote; no House floor vote as of May 13, 2026. Would expand NHTSA AD…
Introduced July 23, 2025; referred to House Transportation and Infrastructure and then the Highways and Transit Subcommittee on July 24, 2025; still in committee as of May 13, 2026. Would create a national autonomous co…
Uber is positioning itself as the operating system for autonomous mobility rather than a vehicle builder. Its active U.S. passenger AV footprint is concentrated in Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, and Las Vegas through…
Introduced Feb. 5, 2026; forwarded by House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee to the full committee on Feb. 10 by a 12-11 vote; no House floor vote as of May 13, 2026. Would expand NHTSA AD…
Introduced July 23, 2025; referred to House Transportation and Infrastructure and then the Highways and Transit Subcommittee on July 24, 2025; still in committee as of May 13, 2026. Would create a national autonomous co…
Axios reported NVIDIA is positioning Hyperion as a modular AV stack and that Uber plans 100,000 NVIDIA-powered robotaxis from various manufacturers starting in 2027.
Bullish for NVIDIA's picks-and-shovels autonomy thesis and mildly bullish for Uber's long-run partner supply, while still leaving execution and dependency risk.
TechCrunch reported NHTSA opened an investigation into Uber partner Avride after identifying 16 crashes and one minor injury in Austin and Dallas supervised autonomous operations.
Bearish for Uber's partner-led execution risk because Avride is one of the active U.S. robotaxi partners on the platform.
Axios reported Uber is pairing its AV partnership strategy with a policy paper that addresses jobs, congestion, safety, and city partnerships while noting AV legislation has stalled in at least eight states.
Mixed for Uber expansion: the policy push is constructive for longer-run market access, but it also confirms that several important markets remain politically blocked rather than immediately deployable.
TechCrunch reported Nuro received California DMV driverless-testing authorization for Lucid Gravity SUVs intended for Uber service, while CPUC and DMV deployment approvals remain required.
Bullish for Uber's San Francisco Bay Area roadmap, but it stays in excluded known-footprint territory because Uber already announced the market.
Uber and Hertz/Oro announced fleet-management partnerships for robotaxi and driver-led fleets, with Oro supporting charging, maintenance, repairs, cleaning, and depot staffing for Uber's Lucid vehicles equipped with Nuro AV technology.
Bullish for Uber's ability to industrialize AV partner deployments because the Lucid/Nuro program now has a named fleet-operations layer ahead of San Francisco Bay Area service later in 2026.
TechCrunch reported the first customer-ready Rivian R2 SUVs rolled off the Normal, Illinois line and that Rivian does not expect storm damage to delay June deliveries.
Bullish but low-strength for the Uber/Rivian robotaxi pathway: the vehicle program looks less delayed, but the Level 4 autonomy stack and 2028 service target remain unproven.
Axios reports Councilmember Charles Allen is introducing legislation to allow robotaxis in D.C.; Waymo and Zoox are already testing locally with safety drivers.
Bullish for Washington as a policy-clearing market, but still not a launch because the bill must move through Council and D.C. still lacks driverless commercial authority.
Reuters reported that Tesla's robotaxi rollout is moving more slowly than expected, with Musk emphasizing rigorous safety validation as the limiting factor for expansion.
Bearish for aggressive near-term Tesla expansion and directly relevant to the investor expectation gap; Dallas and Houston are live, but scale and timing remain the harder thesis questions.
Waymo launched Nashville in partnership with Lyft and Flexdrive, marking the first major market where Waymo chose a ride-hail partner other than Uber.
Bearish for Uber's Nashville AV access because Uber cannot assume Waymo integration in every Waymo city.
Uber and Zoox said Zoox robotaxis will join the Uber network in Las Vegas starting in summer 2026 and in Los Angeles in 2027.
Bullish for Zoox commercialization timing and for Uber's partner-led AV expansion model, while also clarifying that Los Angeles is likely later than nearer-term candidate markets.
Tesla's Q4 2025 update framed Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa as the next wave of robotaxi markets, targeting H1 2026; Dallas and Houston have since moved into limited-area live service.
Bullish for Tesla's expansion intent, but these cities are now research facts rather than novel prediction targets.
