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Waymo
Waymo

Reno is a possible Waymo market by Dec 31, 2027

Possible47% combined probability

After Waymo works through its active launch queue and testing cities, which genuinely unannounced U.S. commercial market is most likely to follow?

MixedPending
Created
Apr 9, 2026
Last updated
May 14, 2026
Horizon end
Dec 31, 2027
Method
prediction-engine-v2-probability
Event probability
98%
P(Waymo event resolves by horizon)
Conditional probability
48%
P(Reno wins | event occurs)
Combined
47%
eventProbability x conditionalProbability
Forecast guardrail

Known company moves live on the 50-state research layer. This analysis only scores markets still outside the active, queued, testing, mapping, and public-groundwork footprint.

Excluded known footprint
Atlanta
Active
Atlanta
Active
Atlanta
Active
Austin
Active
Charlotte
Up next
Chicago
Up next
Dallas
Active
Dallas
Active
Dallas
Active
Denver
Up next
Denver
Up next
Denver
Up next
Denver
Up next
Denver
Up next
Detroit
Up next
Detroit
Up next
Detroit
Up next
Detroit
Up next
Current call

Reno leads Radar's unannounced-market stack for Waymo because it remains outside the company's confirmed footprint while still clearing the strongest combined regulatory, competitive, and sequencing case.

The candidate set for Waymo was regenerated after excluding every active, queued, testing, mapping, and publicly telegraphed market in the current research layer. Reno still rises to the top once only genuinely open, unannounced options remain.

Candidate markets
Conditional probabilities normalized across eligible candidates
#1
Reno, NV
47%
48% conditional

Reno ranks #1 because commercial pathway is already open. and driverless pathway is already legible..

Why it wins
Commercial pathway is already open.
Driverless pathway is already legible.
Partnership and ecosystem support are already visible.
What holds it back
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
#2
El Paso, TX
32%
33% conditional

El Paso ranks #2 because commercial pathway is already open. and driverless pathway is already legible..

Why it wins
Commercial pathway is already open.
Driverless pathway is already legible.
Partnership and ecosystem support are already visible.
What holds it back
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
State posture is permissive but process maturity is incomplete.
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
#3
Jacksonville, FL
19%
20% conditional

Jacksonville ranks #3 because commercial pathway is already open. and driverless pathway is already legible..

Why it wins
Commercial pathway is already open.
Driverless pathway is already legible.
The market fits the company’s existing footprint.
What holds it back
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.
Public framework
Economics13
Regulatory73
Competition76
Macro / timing50
Operational fit60
What Would Change Our Mind
Probability would increase if

Waymo mapping vehicles, job postings, or fleet staging appear in a candidate market

State or city permit movement creates a clearer path for a candidate market

Waymo accelerates conversion of its existing Up Next queue

Probability would decrease if

Waymo announces a different non-candidate market first

Candidate market passes restrictive AV legislation or slows local permitting

Safety, emergency-response, or capital signals slow Waymo expansion cadence

Disconfirming evidence

Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.

Modeled near-term economics are weak for a disciplined operator.

Confidence history
No confidence updates yet. The initial call is still live.
Update triggers

Reno moving from testing to named commercial permitting would raise confidence.

A disclosed partnership, fleet, or rider launch signal in Reno would raise confidence.

Any new safety setback or local political pushback would lower confidence.

Resolution criteria

Resolves when Waymo publicly announces or launches a new U.S. market outside its tracked active, queued, testing, mapping, and public-groundwork footprint, or when the horizon passes without such a move.

This forecast hits when

Waymo press release, city page, or rider access update names a new market

Waymo opens commercial service in a new market

Major media reports a verifiable Waymo launch or announced launch market

This forecast voids when

Horizon passes with no qualifying new unannounced Waymo market

Horizon: Dec 31, 2027
Sources
Nevada regulatory posture
stateNevada

NRS 482A covers SAE Levels 3-5. Fully autonomous vehicles allowed without human operator. $5M insurance/bond required. DMV issues Certificates of Compliance. Legislature meets biennially — next session 2027. Interim com…

Nevada deployment outlook
stateNevada

Las Vegas is positioned for paid AV ride-hail launch by Uber and Zoox in summer 2026, with Waymo still viewed as a plausible next-wave entrant. The city's grid layout, tourism economy, and controlled resort-corridor geo…

Nevada AV posture
marketReno

NRS 482A (2011/2017); AB 69 (2017). NRS 482A covers SAE Levels 3-5. Fully autonomous vehicles allowed without human operator. $5M insurance/bond required. DMV issues Certificates of Compliance. Legislature meets biennia…

H.R. 7390 — SELF DRIVE Act of 2026
marketReno

Introduced Feb. 5, 2026; forwarded by House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee to the full committee on Feb. 10 by a 12-11 vote; no House floor vote as of May 13, 2026. Would expand NHTSA AD…

H.R. 4661 — AMERICA DRIVES Act
marketReno

Introduced July 23, 2025; referred to House Transportation and Infrastructure and then the Highways and Transit Subcommittee on July 24, 2025; still in committee as of May 13, 2026. Would create a national autonomous co…

Waymo strategy
companyWaymo

Waymo remains the clear U.S. commercial robotaxi leader. As of May 13, 2026, Waymo still lists 11 U.S. rider markets: Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antoni…

H.R. 7390 — SELF DRIVE Act of 2026
federalFederal tracker

Introduced Feb. 5, 2026; forwarded by House Energy and Commerce Innovation, Data, and Commerce Subcommittee to the full committee on Feb. 10 by a 12-11 vote; no House floor vote as of May 13, 2026. Would expand NHTSA AD…

H.R. 4661 — AMERICA DRIVES Act
federalFederal tracker

Introduced July 23, 2025; referred to House Transportation and Infrastructure and then the Highways and Transit Subcommittee on July 24, 2025; still in committee as of May 13, 2026. Would create a national autonomous co…

Linked signals
companyMay 13, 2026Strength 5/5

Waymo expands service areas inside existing live markets

Reuters reported Waymo is expanding first in Miami, with Austin, Atlanta, Houston, and the San Francisco Bay Area next, and expects to cover more than 1,400 square miles across 11 U.S. cities in the coming weeks.

Bullish for Waymo scale, but not a resolution event for the next-unannounced-market forecast because the expansion is inside already live markets.

Companies: waymoStates: FL, TX, GA, CA
SourceLinked predictions: 1
safetyMay 12, 2026Strength 4/5

Waymo files flooded-road software recall

TechCrunch reported Waymo filed a voluntary software recall covering 3,791 fifth- and sixth-generation ADS vehicles after flooded-road behavior in Texas, including a San Antonio vehicle being swept away.

Bearish for near-term public-safety confidence in flood-prone expansion markets, but it does not change Waymo's city footprint or resolve a market forecast.

Companies: waymoStates: TX
SourceLinked predictions: 1
regulatoryApr 28, 2026Strength 3/5

Waymo Detroit rollout raises oversight questions

Axios reported Waymo is meeting with city and state officials before its Detroit rollout, while Michigan's permissive AV framework leaves street-level oversight fragmented.

Mixed for Detroit: the rollout signal is real, but oversight and local integration questions remain a deployment risk.

Companies: waymoStates: MI
SourceLinked predictions: 1
companyApr 28, 2026Strength 4/5

Waymo Austin reaches 130 square miles with 300 vehicles

Axios reported Waymo's Austin footprint now spans 130 square miles with about 300 local vehicles and 10.7 million fully autonomous miles; airport and freeway trips remain in safety-driver testing.

Bullish for Waymo's operating scale and Texas execution, while keeping airport and freeway access in the research layer rather than treating them as fully commercial service.

Companies: waymoStates: TX
SourceLinked predictions: 1
regulatoryApr 25, 2026Strength 3/5

Austin ambulance incident keeps Waymo safety coordination in focus

Axios reported Waymo will not attend an April 29 public meeting on a March ambulance-blocking incident, saying it already briefed local and state officials privately.

Mixed for Waymo: the incident does not change the live footprint, but it raises public-safety process risk in the most active U.S. AV state.

Companies: waymoStates: TX
SourceLinked predictions: 1
regulatoryApr 24, 2026Strength 3/5

D.C. robotaxi bill creates a clearer driverless pathway

Axios reports Councilmember Charles Allen is introducing legislation to allow robotaxis in D.C.; Waymo and Zoox are already testing locally with safety drivers.

Bullish for Washington as a policy-clearing market, but still not a launch because the bill must move through Council and D.C. still lacks driverless commercial authority.

Companies: waymo, zooxStates: DC
SourceLinked predictions: 1
companyApr 23, 2026Strength 4/5

Musk sounds more cautious on Tesla robotaxi expansion pace

Reuters reported that Tesla's robotaxi rollout is moving more slowly than expected, with Musk emphasizing rigorous safety validation as the limiting factor for expansion.

Bearish for aggressive near-term Tesla expansion and directly relevant to the investor expectation gap; Dallas and Houston are live, but scale and timing remain the harder thesis questions.

Companies: teslaStates: TX, AZ, NV, FL, CA
SourceLinked predictions: 1
regulatoryApr 23, 2026Strength 3/5

Illinois pilot bill remains the gate for driverless Waymo service

Axios reported Waymo is mapping Chicago with safety drivers while a multi-county AV pilot bill remains in Rules Committee and faces labor opposition.

Mixed for the Chicago outlook: mapping is real, but the legal path remains unresolved and city-level authority would be limited by the proposed state pilot.

Companies: waymoStates: IL
SourceLinked predictions: 1
companyApr 7, 2026Strength 4/5

Waymo chooses Lyft as Nashville partner, not Uber

Waymo launched Nashville in partnership with Lyft and Flexdrive, marking the first major market where Waymo chose a ride-hail partner other than Uber.

Bearish for Uber's Nashville AV access because Uber cannot assume Waymo integration in every Waymo city.

Companies: waymoStates: TN
SourceLinked predictions: 1
companyApr 7, 2026Strength 5/5

Waymo opens Nashville to public riders

Waymo began public service in Nashville on April 7, 2026, adding another warm-weather, tourism-heavy market to its operating footprint.

Bullish for Waymo's continued U.S. expansion cadence, but it also means the next call now sits beyond Nashville rather than on it.

Companies: waymoStates: TN
SourceLinked predictions: 1
companyMar 11, 2026Strength 4/5

Uber and Zoox announce phased commercial rollout

Uber and Zoox said Zoox robotaxis will join the Uber network in Las Vegas starting in summer 2026 and in Los Angeles in 2027.

Bullish for Zoox commercialization timing and for Uber's partner-led AV expansion model, while also clarifying that Los Angeles is likely later than nearer-term candidate markets.

Companies: zoox, uberStates: NV, CA
SourceLinked predictions: 3
companyJan 28, 2026Strength 5/5

Tesla frames aggressive 7-city robotaxi expansion for H1 2026

Tesla's Q4 2025 update framed Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa as the next wave of robotaxi markets, targeting H1 2026; Dallas and Houston have since moved into limited-area live service.

Bullish for Tesla's expansion intent, but these cities are now research facts rather than novel prediction targets.

Companies: teslaStates: AZ, TX, NV, FL
SourceLinked predictions: 1
companyJan 22, 2026Strength 4/5

Waymo's Florida footprint keeps widening

Waymo's Miami launch deepened its Florida presence after the company had already described a broader Sun Belt operating sequence.

Bullish for another warm-weather follow-on market because Waymo's expansion logic still looks geographically disciplined rather than random.

Companies: waymoStates: FL
SourceLinked predictions: 1